*AA's Vision Taking Shape

    


This off-season Alex Anthopoulos has been busier than Charlie Sheen's dealer. Okay, you're right, no one is THAT busy (move over Seacrest, Sheen's dealer is the new hardest working man in showbiz. ZING!). Two months ago I wrote about some of the moves he's made and the direction he sees the team moving in (read the article by clicking here). Not a whole lot has changed since then as far as the roster goes, but the identity of this team has begun to show itself over the course of spring training. With the home opener now upon us, a few predictions and assessments are in order.
    
    Let's take it from the top. John Farrell, the new manager of the Toronto Blue Jays gets nothing but rave reviews from people around the league. His baseball IQ is showered with praise, he's respected immensely by his former players, and he seems to be a perfect fit here in Toronto. The question will be whether or not he can get the same level of production out of this young roster as Cito Gaston did last year. 


    There have been a few changes , with Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, and Shaun Marcum all playing in new cities this year, but the nucleus of the roster remains in tact. Will the addition of players like Rajai Davis change the way the Jays' offence produce runs? Will they still be a power team? I say yes. You have a freshly minted Jose Bautista returning, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill are both good for 25+ dingers, and Travis Snider and Edwin Encarnacion should provide around 20 each as well. The long ball shouldn't be an issue. With Davis at the top of the order, we should see a few more multi-run homers (last year's Jays not only led the league in home runs, but also in solo homers). The extra bases should in theory translate into a more balanced offence.


    On the other side of the diamond, the Jays have a similar look. The "Jose-Bautista-at-third" experiment has been turfed heading into tonight's opener, with Encarnacion reassuming his duties, and Bautista heading back into right field (where he was top 5 in the league in outfield assists last season, and where he's most comfortable). Encarnacion also impressed team officials with his glove during the spring at first base, giving Farrell a viable option should the Adam Lind project fall through. To that end, Lind has delivered what most people expected: a decent glove that still needs a lot of work. How Lind does at first base could be a pivotal point to how well this team's defence performs, and could also have a ripple effect on Adam Lind's net worth to the team in the long-term. With him under contract for several seasons, the Jays will not be keen on paying him big money to just DH, so if he fails as a first baseman look for Lind to become trade fodder by the time the deadline rolls around.


    On the mound the Jays are yet again one of the deepest teams in the league, even after losing their top pitcher two years in a row (Roy Halladay, and Shaun Marcum respectively). The starting five will be Romero, Cecil, Morrow, Drabek, and Litsch. A scary unit for any batter. Lefty Jo-Jo Reyes will start the season as a starter while Morrow recovers from a minor injury, and has the potential to make it tough on management. Reyes has some top-notch stuff, and although he would still be effective as a situational reliever, with a couple solid starts there could be a bit of a debate over who stays in the top five. 


    The bullpen is overflowing with able arms, although most are right handers. The team is going to have to send some very capable pitchers down to AAA to start the season, but that depth will be a key during the exhaustingly long regular season, when there are certainly going to be injury issues along the way. Frank Francisco is pencilled in as the closer, but possible NBA reject Jon Rauch will get an audition in the role to start the year while Francisco recovers from a minor injury (Rauch is the tallest player in MLB history at 6 foot 10). 


    Some of the most promising young pitching in the league won't count for much unless there is a capable body calling the game from behind the plate. Enter J.P. Arencibia. Everybody knows the kid has a bat, he was the AAA MVP last season after clocking 30+ dingers, and there are few people in Hogtown who don't remember his epic 4 for 5, two home run Major League debut. Possibly the most key question mark for this year's Jays will be how Arencibia handles the game-calling duties with an unseasoned pitching staff. He's going to have to get the most out of every starter for this team to compete this year, and in the years to come. Jose Molina is said to be a great mentor, is a very serviceable backup, and can gun down nearly anyone trying to sneak in a stolen base. The catcher position does prove to be a pivotal point of production for the Jays to succeed.


    You have to factor in the invariables that will certainly pop up over the course of 162 games. There are going to be injuries. There are going to be slumps. How do you balance out the producers with the lame ducks? Simple: depth. This team is deeper with young talent than any Blue Jays squad in recent memory, with stars like Brett Lawrie lurking in the shadows. For the record, I do believe Lawrie will get a shot somewhere mid-season, and if his spring training was any indication, he'll stick. This kid is a bona fide blue-chipper, a Canadian, and could be the answer for years to come at third for the Jays. Adeiny Hechavarria will put the heat on Yunel Escobar to perform in his contract year, and should provide further stability to the infield picture down the road. He could see some time with the big club as well if injuries become an issue.


    When you weigh all these factors together, you've got a  pretty talented group. The question is can this group produce now rather than later? I think the Jays will wind up in the 85-90 win range, much like last year, but they'll pick up those wins in a different fashion. Rather than clobbering the ball game in and game out, we're going to see a much more balanced team, with a greater focus on team defence. With the big guns in New York and Boston, they'll have to play defence if they want to at least duplicate last year's 85 wins. The Rays are thinner, but still not a pushover, and the doormat Orioles have a bolstered lineup as well that will be tougher. One thing that never changes in the AL East is the level of competition, but the Jays look poised to start a major upswing over the next few years. They just won't kick down the door to the playoffs right off the bat. 

*Anthopoulos is Aces (so far...)

The sporting landscape in Toronto looks like a scene out of "The Road"; A barren, desolate landscape, devoid of warmth or sunlight, where the inhabitants are restlessly scouring the earth for some sort of hope, or at least sustenance to make it through another day. A little much? Well, when in Rome.

Let's examine the evidence:

Bryan Colangelo came dripping swagger into power with the Raptors, but as we approach the fifth anniversary of his hiring we have seen a team in constant flux with an almost yearly house cleaning and very little results. They currently sit 12th in the east.

Brian Burke came aboard as Maple Leafs GM with similar hype and confidence, and although he seems to make all the right moves, he is dealing with a franchise so deeply entangled in futility that he may not even last to see the fruits of his labour finally pay off. They currently sit 12th in the east.

Toronto FC...well, it says something about your state of affairs when your star captain (a Toronto native) gives your team the big F.U. to tryout for another club without permission or notice. They finished with 9 wins in 30 games and have yet to make the playoffs in their existence.

The Toronto Blue Jays finished 4th yet again in the AL East, but for good reason this statistic is somewhat misleading. They finished 4th in the toughest division in baseball while having a 10 win improvement over the previous season, and after losing the best pitcher in baseball. Not too shabby, and the reason for this startling forward progression is because of the astute vision of rookie GM Alex Anthopoulos.

Upon his hiring in 2009 Anthopoulos had a daunting task placed in front of him as his first order of business; trade Roy Halladay, arguably the best pitcher in the league and the heart, soul, and face of the franchise for umpteen years. He handled the task with veteran panache, scoring one of the top young pitching prospects available in Kyle Drabek. He followed that up by fleecing the dumbstruck Mariners by acquiring ace starter Brandon Morrow for average middle reliever Brandon League. Not a bad start.

Moving forward Anthopoulos outlined a legitimate and feasible vision for how the team was going to be handled, and has stuck to his word to a tee. The focus would be to stockpile young assets and to focus on building from within, while having a strong focus on pitching depth. With the acquisitions of players such as Drabek, Yunel Escobar, Adeiney Hechavarria, Travis D'Arnaud, and Brett Lawrie he did just that. Lawrie, considered by many to be a blue-chip prospect, came in a high-risk deal that sent Shaun Marcum to Milwaukee. This move was met with question marks by many fans and pundits, but it speaks to the confidence AA has in his young starting rotation, and you don't often get high rewards without taking high risks. The kid's got balls.

Going into this latest off-season the Jays had several roster holes needing solutions. The corner infield positions were in flux, as was the catching situation, the team lacked a legitimate closer, and needed to add speed to the top of the order. Triple-A MVP J.P. Arencibia and veteran back-up Jose Molina will take care of the catching duties. A re-tooled Aaron Hill and a cheaper Edwin Encarnacion will handle 3rd base, and the latter will double as a first baseman in a platoon situation with Adam Lind. The acquisition of Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch creates a solid internal battle for the closer's position and adds depth to the bullpen. Free agent singing Rajai Davis will add forty to fifty stolen bases and outfield mobility. Check, check, check and check, and all within the plan he set in place when he started out.

Beyond all of those roster questions, Anthopoulos also had to replace an outgoing potential hall of fame manager in Cito Gaston. Over fifty candidates were interviewed for the position with no stone being left unturned in the search for the right synergy. In the end AA settled on John Farrell, a man with no Major League management experience. Dumb move? Think again. John Farrell has a resume that includes five years as a head of player development in Cleveland, and four years as the pitching coach for Boston. A track record that directly mirrors the game plan of the Anthopoulos regime. Me thinks me sees a trend here.

The only hurdle left to conquer this off season is the arbitration of reigning Major League home run king Jose Bautista, which according to sources should only be a formality as Bautista is very happy in Toronto and will likely re-sign. AA also avoided going to arbitration with Escobar and Jason Frasor, signing both to one-year deals, taking care of the team's short-term needs at their respective positions while giving the team flexibility in the long-term.

It is still far too early to grade the job Anthopoulos has done with these Blue Jays. There are too many what-ifs and yet-to-be-seens to know exactly how deep an impact he will make on a franchise that hasn't made the playoffs since the World Series glory days of 1993. There is however, one distinct attribute these Jays can boast that no Jays team has been able to over that span: direction. Alex Anthopoulos is a man with a plan, and even though the arms race in the AL East is always the toughest, this team looks poised to compete.